By
Ray Moseley LONDON --
British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday
announced June 7 as the date for an election in which
his government is tipped to win a second term by a landslide
and keep the once dominant Conservatives in the wilderness
for at least four more years. Blair
announced the long-anticipated date after he met Queen
Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace and she agreed to
dissolve Parliament on Friday, setting the stage for the
campaign to begin officially on Monday. By contrast
with the United States, British campaigns are short--this
one just four weeks--and inexpensive. Labor and the
Conservatives spent just $79 million between them in 1997,
and for this campaign have agreed to a spending limit of
just over $22 million for each party. Parties are
allotted a limited number of political broadcasts during a
campaign, and these are financed at public
expense. Blair, who
turned 48 on Sunday, came to office with a parliamentary
majority of 179 as the Conservatives suffered their
worst defeat since 1832. Recent opinion polls suggest Blair
could win an even larger majority this time, between 227 and
250 seats. That margin is
likely to shrink in the campaign, but the Conservatives face
the almost impossible task of having nearly to double the
165 seats they won in 1997 just to secure a slim
majority. Pollsters say
Labor is not nearly as popular as its lead suggests and owes
its favorable margin primarily to continuing voter
disillusionment with the Conservatives and especially their
leader, William Hague, 40. Hague, often
caricatured by cartoonists as a boy in short pants, is
disliked by many in his own deeply divided party. Another
landslide for Labor would virtually ensure the end of his
leadership. Blair's own
approval rating is in the low 20s--lower even than the
rating for former Labor leader Neil Kinnock when he was
thrashed at the polls by Margaret Thatcher in the
1980s. Once hailed as
the brightest star among European leaders, Blair is now seen
by many as indecisive and lacking the sure political
instincts that seemed to mark the beginning of his
tenure. Blair
transformed Labor from a hard-left Socialist party to a
center-left party more friendly to business and more
committed to a strong national defense than in the
past. But his
government has been dogged by a series of sleaze
allegations, political fiascoes such as the $1 billion
Millennium Dome project, and failure to overcome serious
problems in the National Health Service and schools. Labor
also has had the bad luck of having to deal with a costly
foot and-mouth disease epidemic that forced Blair to abandon
his May 3 target date for the election. Many voters
also have been alienated by a government with an almost
obsessive attachment to political spin. Alastair Campbell,
Blair's press secretary, is a subject of fierce controversy
and is often portrayed by critics as the real power in the
government, telling Blair what to do. Yet none of
this has dented the government's standing with voters, a
government that no doubt has benefited from its management
of a healthy economy. Officials say their biggest concern is
that many of their supporters will take the election outcome
for granted and not bother to vote. Campbell said
the government would go into the campaign with "humility,"
admitting it hasn't done everything correctly in its first
term. Blair told his
Cabinet on Monday: "Forget the polls and commentators. This
is going to be a far tougher fight than people
imagine." The
government has signaled that it plans big increases in
health and education spending if it is
re-elected. Hague welcomed
the coming election, saying the government was not so much
seeking a second term as a second chance. But he has been
weakened in the last two weeks by two parliamentary members
of his party making racist comments. Hague wavered at first,
then forced the two men to recant by threatening to strip
them of party membership. His party is
expected to make a strong campaign pitch for tighter laws on
how to deal with asylum seekers, one of the few issues on
which it does relatively well in the polls. The
Conservatives also will demand tougher measures to deal with
crime, and have been mounting an attack on what Hague
calls Labor's "stealth taxes" that have increased the burden
on the poor. For most of
the past four years, Hague has campaigned against British
membership in the euro, the European single currency, which
takes on a new reality Jan. 1 when the first euro notes and
coins go into circulation. Labor has
mostly tried to duck the euro issue; opinion polls indicate
overwhelming opposition to the currency. But Blair recently
promised to hold a referendum on euro membership within two
years of beginning a second term. Foreign
Secretary Robin Cook promised Tuesday that Labor would
ensure Britain would remain "in the mainstream of Europe, a
partner committed to making a success of Europe." Cook said the
Conservatives are committed "to reducing Britain to the
sidelines of Europe." If Blair is
re-elected, he may enjoy a less cozy relationship with the
administration of President Bush than he did with that of
Bill Clinton. Blair has been
criticized in conservative circles in the U.S. for his
equivocations about the president's missile defense shield
plan. Hague has given it his full support.
Chicago Tribune, May 9, 2001, p.
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